Bimwe mu bibazo by’ingutu byugarije isi y’ibidukikije mu mwaka wa 2022: Part1

Ibi byose byagize uruhare mu bibazo byugarije isi, bitera iyangirika ry’ibidukikije, bigasubira inyuma natwe bikatugiraho ingaruka.

1. Ubushyuhe bukabije ku isi biva mu bicanwa (Fossil Fuels)

Umwaka wa 2022 wabaye umwaka waranzwe n’ubushyuhe bukabije cyane ku isi.

Mu nkuru yasohotse ku rubuga rwa Earth.org muri Nzeri 2022, yagaragazaga ko ibipimo bya Gaz Carbonique, CO2 PPM (Parts Per Million) yari kuri 418, naho izamuka ry’ubushyuhe bw’isi ryari kuri dogere Celcius 1.1 ugereranyije n’igihe cya mbere y’iterambere ry’inganda. Ibi bipimo byo hejuru bya Gaz Carbonique (CO2) bikaba byaherukaga kuba hejuru kuri uru rwego cyera mu myaka irenga miliyoni 4 ishize.

Ukwiyongera kw’imyuka ihumanya ikirere byatumye urwego rw’ubushyuhe ku isi bwiyongera ku buryo bwihuse kandi butajegajega, ari nabyo bisubira inyuma bigateza ibibazo by’ingutu biterwa n’imihindagurikire y’ibihe tubona ndetse twumva hirya no hino ku isi;

Uhereye muri Australia na Amerika, hagenda hagaragara ugushya kw’ibihuru n’amashyamba ku rwego rutigeze rubaho;

Inzige zuzuye mu bice bya Afurika, Uburasirazuba na Aziya zangiza imyaka;

N’umuyaga w’ubushyuhe bwinshi butigeze bubaho muri Antaragitika bwageze ku rwego rwa dogere celcius 20 bwa mbere mu buzima.

Abahanga mu bya Siyansi bahora baburira abantu ko umubumbe w’isi wahuye n’ibiwangiza byinshi bishobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye:

A. Nko kwihutisha ugushonga kwa “permafrost” (pergélisol):

Permafrost ni igice cy’ubutaka haba ku isi cyangwa mu bujyakuzimu kigomba guhora gikonje munsi ya dogere celcius zeru (0°C) mu myaka ibiri cyangwa irenga, iherereye ku butaka cyangwa munsi y’inyanja. Bikunze kugaragara cyane mu gice cy’amajyaruguru y’isi, hafi 15% y’isi y’amajyaruguru cyangwa 11% by’ubuso bw’isi yose bishimangirwa na permafrost, hamwe n’ubuso bwa kilometero kare miliyoni 18 (18 million km²).

Permafrost rero iramutse ishonze (gushonga) ishobora gutera ingaruka zikomeye ku bantu no ku bidukikije.

Ku rugero ko barafu yuzuye urubura rwinshi, bigahinduka nk’icyondo, iki cyondo kikaba kitaba kikibashije gufata ubutaka bityo ibiriho ku butaka bikakiremerera bigatemba. Twibuke ko abantu, ibimera, amazu, ibiti, imihanda, n’ibindi byinshi biba ku isi biba ku butaka. Ibyo byose rero byatembana na cya gikoma cy’urubura ruvanze n’ibyondo.

Kuri iki gishushanyo urabonaho “permafrost”. (Photo: climatekids.nasa.gov)

Amakuru dukesha urubuga rwa https://climatekids.nasa.gov/permafrost/; mu ngaruka nyinshi zaterwa n’uko permafrost yashonze, ni uko bagiteri na za virus za cyera ziba muri permafrost mu rubura zashonga zishobora guteza uburwayi bukomeye mu bantu no mu nyamaswa. Abahanga mu bya Siyansi bakaba baravumbuye ko muri permafrost habamo bagiteri na virus nyinshi zimaze imyaka irenga 400000 zikonje (izi zigumye zikonje ntacyo zatwara ibinyabuzima birimo n’abantu).

Kuri iyi foto urabonaho igice cya permafrost cyitandukanyije n’ikindi kikagwa mu nyanja (kiraza gushonga). (Photo: climatekids.nasa.gov)

B. Urubura rwa Greenland rushonga ku kigero kitigeze kibaho;

Mu myaka ibiri ishize (2020), ikinyamakuru The Guardian cyakoze inkuru igaragaza ko abahanga mu bya Siyansi bemeza ko urubura rwa Greenland rurimo gushonga bikabije, ubushakashatsi bukaba bugaragaza ko igihombo cyatewe ahanini n’umuvuduko ukabije utitaye ku cyitegererezo cy’ikirere (climate models).

World Economic Forum, ku rubuga rwayo rwa weforum.org, mu nkuru yo mu kwezi k’Ukwakira 2022, bagaragaje bimwe mu bibazo NASA yagaragaje bishobora guterwa n’ugushonga k’urubura rwa Greenland. Urubura rwa Greenland nirwo rubura runini mu Majyaruguru y’isi.

Muri iyi nkuru bavugamo ko uru rubura ruramutse rushonze rwose, urwego rw’inyanja iriho ku isi (sea level) rwazamukaho metero 7.4. Ibi biramutse bibaye, byateza ukwiyongera kw’imiyaga myinshi ku isi, imyuzure ikiyongera ku rugero rurenze urwo dusanzwe tubona;

Bimwe mu bihugu cyane cyane ibisanzwe ari ibirwa bikarengerwa cyangwa bikazimira, ndetse n’ubutaka n’abantu bo ku isi bagahura n’akaga kuko amazi y’inyanja yakwanduza amazi yo ku isi mo umunyu, ubuzima bwo ku isi bugahungabana cyane.

Ubushakashatsi bwagaragaje ko urubura rwa Greenland rutakaza nibura gigatones 277 (zishonga) buri mwaka uhereye muri 2002.

C. Kwihutisha kuzimangana kwa gatandatu (sixth mass extinction)

Iyi ngingo n’ubwo tutari buyivugeho byinshi, gusa ntitwabura kugaragaza ikibazo gikomeye cy’uko ibinyabuzima bimwe na bimwe biri mu nzira yo kuzimira burundu (ndetse hari ibyamaze gushira ku isi), aho ubushakashatsi bwagaragaje ko amoko arenga 500 y’inyamaswa zo ku butaka ashobora kuzaba yarashize ku isi mu myaka 20 iri imbere hatagize igikorwa.

Ubushakashatsi bwasohotse mu kinyamakuru Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, bwize ku moko 29.000 y’inyamaswa z’inyamabere zo ku butaka, bagaragaje urutonde rutukura rwakozwe n’Umuryango Mpuzamahanga wita ku Kubungabunga Ibidukikije (IUCN), rwagaragaje amoko 515 y’inyamaswa asigaranye umubare muke ku isi aho harimo afite umubare uri munsi y’1000, kandi hafi icya kabiri cy’ayo moko afite umubare w’inyamaswa zitanageze kuri 250 zisigaye ku isi.

Zimwe mu nyamaswa tuzi, zizaba zitakibarizwa ku isi mu myaka 20 iri imbere

D. No kwihutisha ishira/izimangatana ry’amashyamba yo muri Amazone.

Twibukiranye ko mu myaka 50 ishize, ishyamba rya Amazone ryo muri Brazil rimaze gutakaza nibura 1/5 cy’amashyamba yaryo, hafi kilometero kare 300000. Harimo nibura kilometero kare 5.110 zatikiye mu mwaka wa 2021.

Gutema amashyamba bikurikira imyuka ihumanya ikirere mu gutera imihindagurikire y’ikirere.

Ishyamba rya Amazone yo muri Brazil rimaze gutakaza nibura 1/5 by’amashuamba yaryo. (Photo: Reuters).

Ibibazo by’ihindagurika ry’ikirere bituma habaho ubwiyongere bw’imvura yangiza, imiyaga isenya, imyuzure n’ibindi kandi bigenda birushaho kwiyongera kuruta mbere.

N’ubwo ibyuka bihumanya ikirere byahagarikwa ako kanya, ubushyuhe bw’isi bwakomeza kwiyongera mu myaka iri imbere. Niyo mpamvu ari ngombwa ko dutangira nonaha kugabanya cyane inyuka bihumanya ikirere no kwangiza amashyamba, kugira ngo ejo hacu hazabe heza.